Population growth in Cornwall: time for a fair deal

Voices have been heard telling us to accept our ‘fair share’ of projected population growth in the UK and implying that by rejecting this growth we might be selfish nimbies. But what exactly does a ‘fair share’ mean? Let’s look at what’s happened over the past half century to see how ‘fair’ things have been up to now.

Here’s the population growth of the different countries of Great Britain since 1961.

Population 2010 (1961=100)

Oh dear, looks as if Cornwall has seen a growth (entirely fuelled by migration from England) more than three times that of England, over four times that of Wales and 73 times faster than Scotland. No wonder we’re feeling a little peeved. The combined growth of the other Celtic countries has been just 4.9%. A ‘fair’ distribution of this would have meant a Cornish population now of just 356,000, a sustainable total. Put another way, we’ve had an excess population growth of around 180,000 since 1961.

But those who call for us to take our fair share would no doubt deny Cornwall was a Celtic country, preferring to bask in its status as one of the last outposts of the English Empire. Yet if the benchmark for ‘fairness’ is the 19% growth in England then why did we still have to house 133,000 too many?

What about comparisons with English counties? There are 46 (1973 base) counties in England. Cornwall has grown faster than 40 of these, including all the counties in south west England (Cornwall 58%, Devon 37% for example).

Only six have experienced a faster population growth rate than Cornwall. Five of these are clustered west and north of London – Buckinghamshire (which includes the new town of Milton Keynes), Cambridgeshire, Northamptonshire, Berkshire and Bedfordshire. The other is West Sussex which has grown very slightly faster than Cornwall.

Cornwall is extremely unusual in being a peripheral area with a growth rate akin to well-heeled parts of the south east of England on the edge of the London labour market. (Compare Cumbria with a growth of just 6% in this same period).

So by all means let’s have some fairness. In fact we’re well overdue to take a much fairer proportion of population growth, after accommodating a massive amount more than our ‘fair share’ for the last 50 years. In fact, wouldn’t it be good to see our elected representatives also demanding some fairness, rather than stubbornly persisting in their Core Strategy on encouraging the current pattern of migration and population growth into the infinite future.

Cornish school performance 2011

This is a public service blog. During the past week the Department for Education produced a new, all singing, all dancing set of performance statistics for schools in England and Cornwall. Unfortunately, while offering data on everything short of the name of the school cat, there’s an element of data overkill here.

But have no fear. Here’s an analysis of the performance of Cornish schools.

First, how do our schools compare with those in England? At KS4 (GCSE) the numbers gaining five A-C grades including English and Maths in Cornwall remain slightly lower (55%) than the English average of 58%. However, there’s been a very slight one point closing of that particular gap since 2008. For A levels, the picture is far rosier. In 2008 Cornish schools underperformed in terms of A level points per entry but they’re now doing better than schools in England.

For the topline data of proportions of pupils gaining five GCSE passes including English and Maths the schools at the top of the list are

1. Truro School (independent) 99%

2. Truro High School for Girls (independent) 98%

3. Callington 68%

4. Richard Lander, Truro 67%

=5. Bolitho, PZ (independent) and Falmouth 66%

=7. Helston and Wadebridge 63%

=9. Mullion and Penair, Truro 62%

The poorest results at GCSE were at

=1. Camelford and Poltair, St Austell 38%

3. Bodmin 41%

4. Lanson 45%

=5. Camborne, Newquay Tretherras and Torpoint 47%

=8. Brannel and Liskeard 48%

=10. Cape Cornwall and Hayle 49%

Twelve Cornish schools managed to do better than the English average. Nineteen did worse.

For A level scores the best results were

1. Truro School (independent) 249

2. Truro HS for Girls (independent) 246

3. Helston 228

=4. Torpoint and Wadebridge 226

6. Camborne 217

7. Budehaven 214

8. Lanson 211

9. Newquay Tretherras 210

10. Redruth 208

But the state schools (teaching 95.8% of Cornish kids) are fast closing the gap on the independent sector. From 32 points adrift in 2008 the best is now only 18 points short.

The presence of the two main independent schools at the top of these tables should alert us to the fact that performance is in general down to the intake and the background of the children in a school’s catchment area. The stubborn fact that Tory and Labour Ministers for Education choose to ignore is that educational attainment in this country is strongly correlated with income (and class). The better off your parents are the better you tend to do. If you want more equality in schooling across the board then make society more equal.

Only 30% of disadvantaged children in Cornish schools got five GCSEs last year, compared with the overall 55%. Here, sadly Cornwall does worse than England, where 34% of disadvantaged children scooped five GCSEs. The schools in Cornwall that did better than the English average when teaching their disadvantaged children were

1. Penrice, St Austell, where a very impressive 57% of disadvantaged pupils gained five GCSEs

=2. Cape Cornwall and Mullion 50%

4. Budehaven 44%

=5. Liskeard and Richard Lander, Truro 42%

7. St Ives 40%

=8. Pool and Roseland 38%

10. Hayle 36%

=11. Callington and Mounts Bay 35%

In short, the higher the attainment of children on leaving Junior School the better they do at Secondary School. It’s hardly rocket science. So in general, school league tables merely tell us which schools have the brightest intake of 11 years-olds.

Only 6% of low attainers at 11 manage five GCSEs, whereas 94% of high attainers do so. True, some schools (notably Helston, Humphry Davy at Penzance and Pool) did a lot better than this. Although even at the best of these only 20% of low attainers got their five GCSEs. And at others (Fowey, Newquay Treviglas, Roseland and St Ives) no low attainers at all ended up with five GCSEs including English and Maths.

If we compare the characteristics of the intake with their results at GCSE the schools that did best in 2011 were

Humphry Davy, Mullion, Pool and Wadebridge

On the other hand the schools that, given their intake, struggled were

Bodmin, Fowey, Lanson, Newquay Tretherras and Torpoint

Cornwall Council and the mysterious case of the missing migrants

In all the many pages that accompany Cornwall Council’s Core Strategy consultation one thing is oddly absent. In the 27 pages of Planning for Cornwall: Our preferred approach the role of in-migration receives short shrift, being mentioned just twice. And even then it comes last in a series of factors producing the ‘need’ for 48,000 houses.

the level of need … comes from the number of new households that come from our existing communities, young people leaving home, family breakup, older people living longer, and through an expected level of migration into or back into Cornwall

From this migration looks like an afterthought, something topping up the numbers already needed.

Moreover, in the 334 poorly written pages of Area Discussion Papers setting out where all these new houses will go, there isn’t a single mention of in-migration. Not one.

This becomes even stranger when the Council itself in its own ‘evidence base’ tells us that natural change in Cornwall without factoring in migration is expected to lead to a lower population (Housing Issues paper, p.5). Or that

migration is the single greatest driver of population change (Population and Household Change v.2, p.5)

This understates things. Actually, migration provides all of the increase in expected population according to the ONS.

Projected population change with and without migration

But for some reason the planners don’t care to remind us of this embarrassing fact in the consultation paperwork. Instead, they deliberately avoid the question of how much of the proposed new housing is ‘needed’ for in-migrants and how much for the existing population.

CoSERG estimates that a steady-state population scenario requires just 12,500 houses. This suggests that 26% of the new housing is required for local needs and 74% for in-migrants (both permanent dwellings and second homes). But if I understand it correctly CoSERG’s calculation allows for some continued net in-migration of around 10,000 over 20 years.

If on the other hand we assume no net in-migration (in other words the number of in-migrants equals the number of out-migrants) then the smaller population of 2031 will need very few extra houses. Just allowing for genuine local need and household change might require 5,000 or so more houses on top of the existing stock. On that measure just 10% of the Council’s 48,000 houses are required for the existing population. While 90% will goes to in-migrants.

And the Council’s extra growth options at Bodmin and Saltash and its eco-communities, adding another possible 15,000 to the 48,000, will all go to in-migrants.

The Council is intentionally and wilfully obscuring the central truth of population growth. Large numbers of houses are needed to facilitate high levels of in-migration. Indeed, this Core Strategy encourages even more in-migration through its explicit bone-headed emphasis on ‘growth’.

The inconvenient truth is that cherished countryside on the edges of all our major towns is being sacrificed, landscapes that generations of our ancestors struggled to make destroyed, places that hold special meaning for us casually suburbanised. The Cornishness of Cornwall is insulted and cast aside. And for what? To accommodate even more in-migrants from England while generating substantial profits for local landlords and non-local construction companies, planning consultants and development companies.

Is this right? Is it democratic? Does anyone else shed a tear when daily we’re confronted by the loss of our land and this insensitive trampling on our heritage?

Heartlands: black hole takes shape at the heart of Camborne-Redruth

The £35 million Heartlands project at Pool, between Camborne and Redruth, is set to open in the spring. Superb timing in a year when we have to be diverted from such distasteful reality as unfair austerity policies. The good people of Camborne-Redruth can joyfully join in a festival of flannel along with the Olympics and Royal jubilees.

Most people in Camborne-Redruth probably still struggle to see the precise point of this grandiose project. Not the local media and opinion-formers though who are getting very excited. We’ve already had the West Briton in November last year calling it a

breathtaking renewal project

It’s definitely quite tiring reading all the torrent of gushing hype. Carolyn Rule, Cornwall Council Cabinet member for economy and regeneration and chair of the Heartlands board enthused last August

Can you imagine how fantastic it will be to actually live at Heartlands?

Ms Rule lives at Mullion.

The project transforms a

wasteland

into a

self-sustaining community asset

Or so we’re told.

Actually it’s more about creating the infrastructure that helps ease the building of thousands more houses in the area. It’s all part of a ‘place-shaping’ exercise to make the area more attractive to incomers and thus ease the pressure on Caroline Quentin country.

Original Heartlands wasteland site

Heartlands apologists have never been too clear about the scale of their pet project. Originally their action plan envisaged 6,000 more houses in the district. In 2007-08 this was bumped up to 11,000. As there were only around 26,000 in the whole of Camborne-Redruth this was quite an increase. It would create 8,000 jobs we were told. Then someone realised that 11,000 houses was likely to bring around 11,000 job-seekers to the area.

So by April 2010 the plan had shrunk back to 6,000 houses, which would now miraculously create the 6,000 jobs. The latest wild guess is 5,500 jobs, thrown at the media last December.

Heartlands itself was projected to employ 50 people back in November 2009. By February 2011 this had changed to

20 jobs in total

With the senior management team in place we’re now seeing other jobs being advertised. These include

• a caretaker responsible for all repair and maintenance and supervising the cleaners – for the princely sum of £14,000

• visitor services assistants, hospitality and catering assistants and chefs – at £6.30-6.50 an hour. All these jobs require ‘experience’ even at this rate of pay.

• The only hope for local young unemployed people without the requisite experience is cleaning staff, also at £6.30 an hour.

The current minimum wage is £6.08 an hour.

Breathtaking.

Cornwall Council cuddles up to property developers

Cornwall Council’s Core Strategy glows with greenwash jargon deliberately designed to befuddle and befool the people. However, its real agenda is bluntly revealed in Leader Alec Robertson’s message to his councillors last Friday. Robertson positively preened himself when reporting a trip to London hosted by the Local Government Association and the British Property Federation (BPF).

But hold on just a minute though. Isn’t the British Property Federation a well-heeled lobbying body that includes

some of the biggest companies in the property industry – property developers and owners … investment banks

Its ‘lobbying successes’ include injecting ‘realism’ into the Government’s carbon reduction policies in the interests of landlords. It also strongly supports the Government’s new National Planning Policy Framework. Described by many as creating a developers’ paradise, in the BPF’s eyes this merely ‘streamlines’ the planning system.

Their members include Drivers Jonas Deloitte, Indigo Planning, Savills, and Turley Associates, who all urged Cornwall Council to build 57,000 or even more houses in last year’s round of consultations on its Core Strategy. Interestingly, GVA Grimley, Cornwall Council’s favourite consultants, again pop up as members of the BPF as does its favourite supermarket Sainsburys.

But Robertson shows not a jot of shame at being associated with this bunch. On the contrary, Cornwall Council was

one of just six councils to join this group which demonstrates our growing reputation on the national stage

For that delusion of grandeur we should perhaps read growing reputation as an easy touch for property developers. Further down the message comes the ominous news that

Cornwall has been selected as a place-based study area. This means we will be working with senior British Property Federation representatives, developers and local private sector partners to carry out a detailed analysis of potential barriers to growth in Cornwall and identify appropriate solutions

Expect the knock on the door at dawn soon then. ‘Growth’ for Robertson includes the Council’s

ambitious housing programme

which is why the BPF, developers and private sector partners are all slavering at the prospect of more profits from Cornwall’s out-of-control property boom.

Not content with the current helter-skelter journey to a million people in Cornwall by the end of the century Robertson and Cornwall Council’s Cabinet brazenly intend to speed it up. But are all the other councillors really so keen on handing Cornwall over to the property developers in this manner? Have they ever been asked?

Core Strategy: ‘ee’s sum ansum yeow

Our guest blogger - Old Knocker

Woss on? Reading all this Core Strategy traade’s maken’ me sum maazed, I’ll tell ‘ee.

Seem’me, they boays over to planning d’reelly believe all these new houses are ‘sustainable’. They got one o’ they SWOT analyses in their housen’ grawth paaper. ‘An ‘ee d’say that one o’ the strengths of building 52,800 houses will be

slightly higher than business as usual

Slightly higher? Dunnaw ‘bout that but it dun seem zackly right as they also say ‘tis a

20% increase on the level of growth experienced over the last few years

Turns out another strength of building 48,000 or even 57,000 properties for they from upalong comen’ downalong is

some impact on the environment and some green field land would be needed – but not as much for higher growth options

Gizzon, those boays can sartn’ly spin a tale or two, I d’b’leev. There’s 596 pages of ‘sustainability appraisal’ to prove et. Turns out all they new houses and roads and such trade will in the long run (which we d’knaw as dreckly) ‘av a negative impact on soil, water, biodiversity and the maritime environment. Seems

the Core Strategy does not perform well in meeting the environmental objectives for Cornwall

But they reck’n it’s a proper job for most everything else. The plaace may be scat to larrups but my gar, we’m goen’ t’be some socially inclusive, live in fine hupstanding houses and able to drive over ta Trura from Porthemmet whenever we fancy. So ‘ee cain’t be too bad neow, can’ee?

Gotta go lie down neow as all this is making me feel sum wisht. Cheers, pard, ‘av a braa’ weekend!

Cornwall’s store wars: convenient lures not convenience stores

Way back in 1995 John Gummer, Tory Secretary of State for the Environment, in a fit of temporary sanity, declared war on out of town superstores, saying that

they should not get planning permission if they harm the vitality and viability of nearby town centres.

In a sign of how far we’ve regressed since then in the last year alone Cornwall Council’s Strategic Planning Committee gave permission for four new stores, three of which are basically out of town. All four of these permissions went to Sainsburys. Add in their new store at Helston that opened in July 2010 and they’re the clear victors in Cornwall’s ongoing store wars.

Sainsburys Helston. But could be any town.

The Sainsburys brand suspiciously suits Cornwall Council’s not so hidden agenda to gentrify Cornwall. With Waitrose waiting in the wings at the bizarrely named Truro Eastern District Centre (of what? an unannounced suburb??) and TV programmes not so subtly designed to entice a better class of person altogether to move to Cornwall, Tesco’s monopoly looks set to crumble and Morrisons are left out in the cold.

First to get permission last year after a long struggle was the Sainsburys at Wadebridge. In 2010 the Committee had refused three planning applications at Wadebridge – from Sainsburys, Morrisons and for an extension at the existing Tesco. Tesco’s extension got the go-ahead early in 2011 but the other two were heavily rejected by majorities of 12 and 14, with most opposition to the Sainsburys.

What a turnaround by October though. In the face of appeals lodged by both Sainsburys and Morrisons the planners suddenly discovered that a re-designed Sainsburys (which just happened to be on Council owned land) re-sited a full six metres, was now perfectly OK. This was despite their own pet consultants GVA Grimley concluding that there would be a drop of 17-29% fall in takings in the convenience food sector in Wadebridge town centre and an overall drop of 7-8%. Morrisons, although offering ‘endless’ benefits and £750,000 of Section 106 agreement bribes money, was refused 10-2 and Sainsburys approved by 14-3.

Meanwhile, downalong at Hayle, the supermarket saga was running and running. In February there had been four separate applications in the field – Asda, Sainsburys, Morrisons and the Dutch bankers ING’s development on South Quay. In a chaotic vote Asda’s bid was deferred and Sainsburys refused despite the supermarket giant offering a 26 hectare nature reserve to offset the loss of land.

Sainsburys promptly did a deal with ING and popped up again at South Quay in October. At that meeting Morrisons’ application was refused 15-5. Then Asda went the same way 12-5, before the Committee voted 13-6 to approve Sainsburys in its new location.

In the votes four councillors (Mann, Bull, Pascoe, Nolan) voted to approve more than one of the three applications. On the other hand only one (Cllr Pearce) could steel himself to approve none of them.

Also in October, Sainsburys applied to redevelop Penzance heliport, replacing the boring old helicopter to the Scillies with yet another out of town supermarket (aren’t the two existing stores within a quarter of a mile from the heliport enough?) and offering the council the lure of a park and ride into the soon-to-be retail desert of Penzance. Now park and rides are guaranteed to get councillors drooling and their pulses racing as they’re the latest big daft idea, offering less congestion but in fact encouraging more traffic.

Sure enough, the Committee voted overwhelmingly for approval by 14-5 and Sainsburys number 3 was a done deal. They then followed that up in December by giving Sainsburys yet another approval to build their biggest store yet in the west at Ponsharden, Falmouth. Again despite an estimated inpact of 11-12% in reduced takings in Falmouth town centre. But then town centres are so old Cornwall.

Helston - no-one around

And in a parallel universe councillors still insist they can control these over-fed corporate monsters despite all the evidence to the contrary. Indeed, the decline of town centres is blamed on us consumers for not shopping in them rather than the Council committee members with stars in their eyes from that bottomless pit of goodies the supermarket chains dangle in front of them.

Go for growth but garnish with greenwash

Cornwall Council has a not so cunning plan for us. It plans to give us more of what we’ve been getting for the last 60 years. More people, more houses, more second homes, more congestion. Indeed, it desperately wantsto up the rate of growth of all these, having concluded that more of what we’ve had since the 1950s will sooner or later be good for us.

Its ‘strategy’ amounts to cross your fingers, stick a confident smile on your face and hope. This is a ‘vision’ that embraces a high density future, sparkling with park and rides that will be seen from space. Suburbs will sprawl ever deeper into Cornwall’s landscape. Population will rise inexorably until by the end of the century it hits a million. Supermarkets will sprout, temples of joyful consumption offering satisfaction and solace to multiplying numbers of contented Cornish folk, old and new.

If only Cornwall Council would come clean and admit this growth agenda openly so that we could have a proper debate about it. But it doesn’t. In the Core Strategy it’s buried under a torrent of greenwash. The Preferred Approach for a Core Strategy document oozes with fine-sounding phrases that on closer inspection turn out to be so much inane and meaningless drivel.

We’re told Cornwall will

take a lead in the green agenda … achieve a leading position in sustainable living … be a green peninsula … reduce greenhouse gas emissions … make the most of our environment

‘Make the most of our environment’ is revealed later as boiling down to ‘building all over our environment’. All the embarrassing greenwash gibberish is then promptly ignored as the Core Strategy goes on to focus on

providing at least 48,000 houses in the period 2010-2030

We will, it assures us, in some curious but unexplained way

prosper through housing

Levels of greenwash appear to correlate with rates of growth. As the latter rise so do the former. Instead of using an environmentally cuddly discourse to mystify and confuse those of us gullible enough to swallow this fatuous flim-flam, why doesn’t the Council come clean and drop its threadbare cover for the same old growth policies?

Perhaps the final ludicrous straw is reached on page 13 of the Preferred Approach. Here Cornwall Biodiversity Action Plan Priority Project Areas are proudly wheeled out. These will help to

build a stronger ecological cohesion and network of multi functional green infrastructure in Cornwall.

On the map a pale green sinuous path wends its way through Cornwall from Lanson to Lands End. Whatever could it be? Oh, it’s

Cornwall’s Super Green Spine

Cornwall's backbone - its Super Green Spine

Which most of us know of as the A30! Is the Council about to reveal a partnership deal with MacDonalds whereby the familiar packaging that decorates the roadside verges and advertises the company to food tourists is all repainted a tasteful pale green? Or were the planners all as high as a kite when they pulled this absurd flummery out of their collective hats?

If the A30 can be described with a straight face as ‘Cornwall’s Super Green Spine’ then I suppose anything’s possible. Building 48,000 houses for another 100,000 people is a

careful use of natural resources

And pushing up population growth will

maintain the cultural distinctiveness of our communities

Cornwall with Caroline Quentin: just sooper, darling

The difficulty we face in developing a properly sustainable policy for Cornwall is starkly illustrated by the ITV programme 'Cornwall with Caroline Quentin'. Screened at peak viewing time this series is described by its makers – TwoFour Broadcast – as an ‘observational documentary’.

It’s better described as an ‘advertorial’, a lifestyle programme selling a brand and changing behaviour. In this case unashamedly appealing to the luxury tourist market, encouraging people to holiday in and then move to Cornwall, place of

‘iconic landmarks’ and ‘secret culinary hideaways’ just waiting for ‘hungry tourists’.

You can almost feel the ripple of excitement coursing through the Home Counties as, behind the net curtains, images of a ‘beautiful and rugged county[sic]’ are avidly consumed. Just the place in fact to get away from it all, chill out with that laid back lifestyle, enjoy the peace and quiet. As long as there’s lots of supermarkets and foody places that is.

In reality, such programmes feed the romantic desires of the suburban classes and stoke up the pressures of in-migration even further. It was commissioned by Diana Howie of ITV, who’s looking for undemanding

programmes in early evening that appeal to an older audience with “old-fashioned” tastes

Just the sort of dynamic in-migrants who’ll rejuvenate Cornwall.

TwoFour Broadcast are one of the UK’s biggest independent media companies, originally based in Plymouth but now with offices in London, the States and Abu Dhabi. Their Arab operation’s website invites their followers in the region to have

a great weekend – have a fun one

though it’s not clear whether this includes Syria. But perhaps they’re having a fun weekend in the occupied territories of Palestine.

Founded by the brother of a hedge fund trader reputedly worth £200 million, TwoFour Broadcast can think of no better company to tell the stories of Cornwall because of

the company’s ties to Plymouth and Quentin’s connection to Devon’ and its ‘strong west country roots’.

Reach for the sick bag - Caroline's coming

Its approach was clear last summer when it was spotted inviting people in the catering and leisure trade to take part in the series. In an odd phrase, the company was reported to

especially like to hear from anyone in the art, horticultural, history or hospitality business which best sums up Cornwall

‘Best sums up’?! ‘Best sums up’ only though the rose-tinted spectacles of the English tourist trade that is. This is saccharine Cornwall, a sentimental, make-believe fairyland where the Cornish have walk-on roles as ‘amazing characters’, extras lurking in the background scenery of the unfolding drama of the transformation of Cornwall.

Postcript
If you've nothing better to do you can find an amusing discussion about this programme here

The rotten core of the Core Strategy: unsustainable population growth

We’re familiar with corporate politicians who talk one way and walk completely differently. There are those at the top who parrot about ‘fairness’ while putting the boot in on the disabled and the homeless yet moving at a snail’s pace to curb the greed of the super-rich.

And then there are those at the bottom who smugly sing enticing ballads about sustainability while in reality planning for massive population growth. This is the worm at the core of Cornwall Council’s Core Strategy currently out for ‘consultation’ for another seven weeks.

Plenty of empty verbiage in it about

'economic growth within environmental limits'

But the usual refusal to specify exactly what those limits might be or even admit there are such limits. And stultifying silence about the long-term results of the insane process they’re locking us into.

Here’s the basic data.

Population has grown by 295,000 since 1961. In each of the last two 20-year periods (the period of the Core Strategy) it’s been just under 80,000. A stable absolute growth means a falling percentage growth (21.0% for1971-91 down to 16.9% for 1991-2011).

However, we’re told this falling relative growth is set to rise again over the next 20 years. The key here for the planners are the population projections provided by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Although these change wildly every time they’re updated they’re treated as some sort of holy grail. At the moment they’re predicting a jump to 97,500 (or 18.1%) over the period 2011-31. That’s 12% higher than the historic growth rate.

But what the architects of this exercise in futility don’t or won’t admit is that even at the absolute growth rates of the past 40 years the population of Cornwall will be 939,900 by 2111.

On the other hand if we assume population grows by the ONS holy grail absolute figure over each 20 year period in the next century that rises to 1,024,000.

Now, 97,500 extra bodies that the ONS predicts for the next 20 years will require around 42,000 houses according to Cornwall Council’s own consultants in 2010. Yet the Council is actually proposing a minimum 48,000 housing target, equal to a 111,000 population growth. So despite all the rhetoric about sustainability the Council is planning for at least 1,049,900 people by 2111.

And it doesn’t end there. There are even worse scenarios. Take the average 18.65% growth rate of the three 20 year periods between 1971 and 2031 and extrapolate that forward. In that case the population of Cornwall becomes 1,263,000 by 2111.

Can we step off the escalator? Cornwall's population

Interesting isn’t it that Cornwall Council seems to be deliberately proposing a housing target above the ONS projected level? For this recognises that planning policies can in fact affect the rate of growth. But if the Council can plan for extra growth they could also plan for reduced growth rates as part of a long-term strategic plan to slow down this unsustainable growth rate. They could. But they won’t. It’s apparently much more important to keep the profits flowing to up-country developers who build houses for people from up-country rather than plan to provide decent houses for our own people while protecting our environment for future generations.

MPs lose marbles

Our parliamentarians have learnt the lesson of Goebbels well. If you’re going to fib, tell the biggest lie possible.

Take the Cornwall and Isles of Scilly LEP, that august body which appears to contain just two Cornish people on its eleven-member Board. The LEP is a thinly disguised front organisation for Cornwall Council, as can be seen in its endorsement of an Enterprise Zone to prop up the Council’s exercise in hubristic futility at Newquay Airport. Now, as Illogan Blogger alerts us, the LEP has £4.2 million to play with from the Government’s Growing Places Fund.

This money stems from a belated recognition by the Government that the economy has to be stimulated by some Keynesian style spending in order to offset the effects of its austerity for the poor project. A fairly paltry £500 million is being pumped into infrastructure via this fund.

Now, boosting economic activity and creating jobs could conceivably involve spending money on all sorts of things – harbours, community centres, renewable energy projects, sports stadia even. But this doesn’t. It focuses on addressing ‘infrastructure constraints’ and promoting the ‘delivery of jobs and houses’.

In other words it’s a subsidy for housebuilders who won’t have to cough up so much money in sweeteners (known as Section 106 agreements) in order to bribe local planners. This deeply undemocratic and corrupt device for financing infrastructure, rather than taxing developers’ profits and allowing local authorities to decide how to spend the tax receipts, is itself a scandal. But of course typical of that crony corporate house-building which is driving us towards a deeply unattractive future.

Step up Sarah Newton, MP for Truro-Falmouth. Cosy house-building stitch-ups between council and developers are not the issue for Sarah. The million plus who’ll be living in our land by 2100 is an inconsequential detail not worth the mention.

No, Sarah welcomed the £4.2 million. It

will unlock much-needed local infrastructure and get the homes we need built.

We? Who’s this ‘we’ then? Does Sarah not realise that at least three quarters of the extra housing will go to in-migrants?

Even more bizarrely, she goes on to claim that pushing up the population in this way will

improve the lives of local residents in Truro and Falmouth and … reduce congestion

Dear of her. Sarah Newton

We have truly arrived only a quarter of century late at that 1984 dystopia where white is black and black is white. This is a never-never land where more houses and roads miraculously result in fewer of us morons driving along to the supermarket. The same dreamworld where calling a new housing development an ‘eco-community’ will mean none of its residents will drive a car or rely on a 9-5 job, that world where park and rides do not create extra traffic, or where green fields are in fact brown fields.

This is that never-never land where the implications of doubling the population of Cornwall must never ever be addressed, let alone debated. It’s a land in which all corporate politicians live, together with most councillors and the whole of a planning fraternity whose role is to soothe the masses while guaranteeing the right of developers to maximise profits.

Another denizen of this Alice in Wonderland is Lib Dem Cabinet Minister Danny Alexander. Parroting Sarah, or was it Sarah parroting Danny? He also thinks the Growing Places Fund will

improve the lives of local residents

and

reduce congestion

Must be so then.

Unsustainable growth: why Cornwall Council is the problem, not part of the solution

In the old days planning authorities were regarded as the wise owls that ensured the environment was safeguarded and the people’s interests protected from the ravages of a market driven solely by profit. Those days are now long gone.

Cornwall Council, which is deciding on the housing targets for Cornwall in its Core Strategy and therefore the acceptable future population of Cornwall, can no longer be distinguished from the developer lobby. There is no level playing field any more. Now judge is not only jury but accused as well. For Cornwall Council has enthusiastically signed up to a growth at all costs agenda, one that threatens to make already unsustainable rates of housing and population growth catastrophically worse.

The evidence mounts up. For example.

1) The Office for National Statistics produces detailed estimated population projections. These vary wildly from one projection to the next but currently project a massive growth of 97,500 in Cornwall’s population over the next twenty years. This will take it to 637,000 by 2031 (nearly double what it was in 1961).

If that wasn’t bad enough the Council’s consultants on its Employment Land Review in 2010 - Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners (nearest office Cardiff) - pointed out that the ONS forecasts

do not take account of policy aspirations for growth within the county

They calculated that even Cornwall Council’s ‘low growth’ scenario of 45,000 houses equates to a 104,560 population growth.

2) Or take the much-derided Can Do Cornwall document, Cornwall Council’s pitiful attempt to transform itself from a democratically elected body to a private limited company. In this it states that the Council

is designing an ambitious 10-year programme to deliver 30,000 … homes

Yet its own ‘preferred’ housing target is supposed to be 48,000 in 20 years. The 30,000 suggests the really preferred agenda is 60,000 houses or more.

3) Or there’s the Masterplans, for which up-country consultants are paid ridiculous amounts of money to tell us to cover our land in concrete in order to accommodate more in-migrants. The Council’s Planning Advisory Panel unanimously accepted a consultation on the Bodmin Masterplan, despite the fact that this plan blithely proposed building 5,000-6,000 houses in Bodmin. This more than doubled even the highest insane building scenario in the Council’s own original Core Strategy proposals. But it was tamely legitimated rather than treated with the contempt it deserved.

The Core Strategy: enough is definitely enough

Eagle-eyed readers of the local press will this week have noticed an announcement from Cornwall Council. This states that consultation on the Council’s preferred Core Strategy begins next Monday and continues for the next eight weeks.

This isn’t just some tedious piece of bureaucracy, of no interest to anyone but planning anoraks. Or at least it shouldn’t be. The Core Strategy is the plan that sets out the framework for development over the next twenty years. The council, in partnership with developers, most of whom are from up-country, want massive housing growth to continue over this period. While the Core Strategy will contain a number of issues, its central element is the housing target.

The higher this figure the easier it is for developers to argue for specific developments such as the massive plans in the pipeline for Truro, or the various proposals that keep re-surfacing near St Austell, or the Duchy’s greedy drive to suburbanise land around Newquay. If those are turned down they can go to appeal citing the ‘requirement’ for a large number of houses in the holy grail of the Core Strategy.

Conversely, if the housing target is lower it becomes more difficult for developers to get away with this argument. And easier for planning committees to reject building plans.

Don’t be fooled by the argument that in the current economic climate these houses are unlikely to be built. This is a 20 year plan and the housing market will sooner or later recover. Markets rise and fall. Moreover, the well-funded developers’ lobby is certainly not letting the current depression distract them. They campaigned hard for as high a housing figure as possible in the earlier consultation on the Strategy. The developers realise that if they win the battle of the Core Strategy then the war is also half-won.

Despite that, the vast majority of comments on the first round of consultation from individuals, organisations and parish councils with no vested interests came down on the side of housing totals much lower than the Council’s preferred 54,000. (Actually 81% of individuals, all parish councils and all voluntary organisations wanted fewer. Needless to say, the Council ignored all these in favour of the 87% of businesses who wanted more.)

Many of those arguing for a lower total were excellent submissions - look for Core Strategy Options Report Chapter 3 Response Report here. All now need to be re-submitted. And we need thousands more to add their voices to these, to stand up and say enough is enough.

For the consultation background papers – available to read here from next Monday – will no doubt be extremely coy about the core issue of the Core Strategy. They much prefer us to argue about where to place the deckchairs rather than point to the looming iceberg ahead.

Let’s not lose sight of that iceberg:

• The vast majority of housing is ‘needed’ in order to ‘accommodate’ in-migration

• Cornwall’s population has grown by 172,000 (the equivalent of seven or eight Penzances, Truros or St Austells) over the past 50 years. This 50% growth in half a century has signally failed to solve our economic problems. Though it’s succeeded in diminishing our quality of life and degrading our environment.

• On current trends Cornwall’s population is set to top a million before this century is out

Do you want a Cornwall in your grandchildrens’ lifetime that will contain twice as many people as it now does? And more than three times the built-up area? Whose Cornwall is it? Ours or the profiteers’?

This Core Strategy ‘consultation’ – even in its flawed form – gives us the opportunity to make a stand against the Council-developer partnership that is quietly and with no democratic mandate steamrollering us towards a Cornwall which treats our landscape as just a convenient cash-cow. To reject the grim, grey, growth scenario being engineered for us we have to reject this Strategy and its housing targets. Mindless growth needs to be replaced by a Core Strategy that puts local needs and Cornish distinctiveness at its heart, allowing our land to recover from a half-century of ‘place-shaping’ in the interest of profits.

The twelfth day of Christmas: 1.2 million people

On the twelfth day of Christmas my council gave to me

1.2 million people*

1100 Truro houses

Ten developers

Nine brave councillors

Eight top consultants

Seven % second homes

Six useless MPs

Five eco-villages

Four supermarkets

Three point four million pounds for an airport

Two Truro park and rides

And a stadium [not] entirely for free

...............................................................................

* by 2100. That’s over twice the current numbers in Cornwall. Who will live in a Cornwall with three or four times the current amount of built-up land.

It could well be higher if Cornwall Council’s current plans become reality.

But don’t worry. The Council has a ‘Green Cornwall’ policy and the Government think all development is ‘sustainable’.

Just don’t mention the 1.2 million. Because no MP or councillor is.

Crime rates in Cornwall: update

As our neighbours in England indulge in their customary post-Christmas ritual of topping each other it’s time to update the crime map of Cornwall.

Unfortunately, the latest available statistics at (very old) ward level take us only to March 2011. Bang up to date detailed data exist –right down to street level – if you want to check on what your neighbour has recently been up to. But these don’t use the same boundaries as the crime maps and the two datasets are not easily compatible, a frustrating but annoyingly common feature of data in the UK.

No matter, in the year to March 2011 where were the places inCornwall with the most crime, the ones where the natives are restless and the ‘new Cornish’might prefer to avoid? Which places are ignored by lifestyle peak-time TVprogrammes designed to lure even more people to Cornwall?

And on the contrary, where are those places which are most crime-free, quiet arcadia of peacefulness, places to enjoy that leisurely pace of life, with only the distant drone of the helicopter ferrying the super-rich to their second home and the remote roar of the A30 to disturb those suburban dreams?

Here’s the top 20. With the annual number of reported crimes per 1,000 population.

1. Redruth 94

2. Penzance 84

3. Liskeard 83

4. Newquay 82

5= Truro and Bodmin 66

7. Camborne 65

8= Lanson and Hayle 64

10. Penryn 63

11= Falmouth and St Austell 62

13= Callington and Bude 58

15. Illogan 51

16. Looe/St Martin 47

17. St Ives 45

18. Ludgvan/Towednack 44

19. Helston 43

20. Camelford 41

Penzance has lost its first place to the somewhat less deprived Redruth, with Liskeard also shooting up (?) the table to come a close third. Other movers are Camborne, up three places, while Hayle is a new entrant in the top ten. Meanwhile, the university town of Penryn slips seven places despite all those unruly students. Saltash and Torpoint, with rates of 40 and 36 respectively, retain their status as the least crime-affected towns of Cornwall.

Keeping the streets safe in Redruth. 'Ere, drop that litter, did 'ee pard?'

The bottom 20 are as follows.

1. Lynher 10

3= Week St Mary/Whitstone, St Keverne, Valency (near Boscastle) and South Petherwin 12

6. Meneage 13
7. St Endellion/St Kew 14

9= St Cleer/St Neot, Goldsithney, Probus and Marhamchurch 15

12= St Ewe and North Petherwin 16

15= Stithians, Grenville, Landrake/St Dominick and Feock/Kea 17

18= Devock/Sheviock and Mullion 18

21= Roseland, Stokeclimsland and Altarnun 19

The least crime–ridden spot is Lynher, on the eastern slopes of Bodmin Moor, which enjoys ten times less crime than Redruth. It doesn’t need an Oxbridge-trained criminologist to tell us that the areas with the least crime are all rural, all better off, and all have lower population densities.

But don’t fret. Cornwall is urbanising very rapidly and Cornwall Council’s cunning plan is to increase that particular growth rate. So the rural areas will gradually shrink, population densities will equally gradually rise and our children can look forward to rising rates of crime.

The eleventh day of Christmas: 1100 houses

On the eleventh day of Christmas my council gave to me

1100 Truro houses (not forgetting 400 more. Oh, and another 1,100 on top of that right next door)*
Ten developers
Nine brave councillors
Eight top consultants
Seven % second homes
Six useless MPs
Five eco-villages
Four supermarkets
Three point four million pounds for an airport
Two Truro park and rides

And a stadium [not] entirely for free

..................................................................................

* Oh dear. It appears that, although ignored by 16,000 supporters and many Cornish nationalists, the stadium near Truro isn’t free after all.

It turns out it comes with 1,500 houses attached, part of a bigger plan for a bloody great suburb of 2,600 houses west of Treliske. Seems that the developers have been cosily chatting to Cornwall’s planners for over a year. They get the houses; the council gets the land for the stadium.

The stadium legitimates the suburb. And no-one seems to have noticed. Or if they have, they don't mind in the least.

The tenth day of Christmas: 10 developers

On the tenth day of Christmas my council gave to me

Ten developers*
Nine brave councillors
Eight top consultants
Seven % second homes
Six useless MPs
Five eco-villages
Four supermarkets
Three point four million pounds for an airport
Two Truro park and rides

And a stadium entirely for free

.............................................................................

* Those who called for the Council’s still undecided Core Strategy to include provision for 57,000 or more houses to be built over the next 20 years, therefore increasing the building rate by an eye-watering 30% (and their own potential profits – what a coincidence) included

• Bell Cornwell, town planning consultants based in Exeter

• Catesby Property Group: residential and commercial developers from Stratford on Avon

• Cranford Developments Ltd: a land and development company from Staffordshire

• Drivers Jonas Deloitte: commercial property consultants with offices in London, Slough, Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Scotland

• Hawkstone SW Ltd: property developers with their registered office at Coalville in Leicestershire

• Linden Homes SW: offices in Saltash but part of the UK-wide Galliford Try building group, which includes Midas Homes, Stanford Homes, Rosemullion Homes and Gerald Wood Homes

• Persimmons Homes SW: a UK-wide building firm with its HQ in York

• Taylor Wimpey: the UK’s largest housebuilder with its head office in High Wycombe

• Tetlow King Planning: a planning and development consultancy from Bristol which on its website boasts of overturning a rejection of 67 houses at Padstow on appeal

• Wain Homes: based in Okehampton

They were backed by

• Cornwall Development Company – Cornwall Council’s own economic development service!
  

The headlines we’re unlikely to see in 2012

HUNT EMBRACES AUSTERITY OLYMPICS: ‘IT’S ONLY FAIR’

Olympics - off

Culture Secretary Jeremy Hunt today axed funding for the Olympics. He announced ‘spending £9 billion of public money on a sports event is manifestly indefensible when the country has no money, as we keep pointing out. We do not intend to repeat the same mistakes the Greeks made in 2004 when they went into debt over the Athens Olympics. And it’s just not fair that people in places like Cornwall are being asked to subsidise an event which benefits London, where household income is 30% higher.’

Cameron - contrite

CAMERON TO COMPENSATE CORNWALL

David Cameron has apologised to the Cornish people for the gratuitous insult that was the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act. ‘Now that the Government has at last recognised the Cornish as a national minority it is anomalous to treat their homeland as a mere English county. I deeply regret our actions last year when thoughtlessly consigning Cornwall to a status less than that of the Isle of Wight. Remedying this gross insult will be a priority for us. We intend to draft a statutory instrument to amend the Act and make Cornwall a special case as a matter of urgency.’ Rumours persist that Mr Cameron is urging Deputy PM Nick Clegg to admit serious errors over Devonwall and tender his resignation.

George - jumping

GEORGE GOES. ‘A MATTER OF HONOUR’

MP for St Ives Andrew George today revealed his intention to resign from the Liberal Democrats with immediate effect. Serial parliamentary rebel George said ‘I have examined my conscience and realise that I cannot go on propping up a Government so utterly mendacious and detestable. Indeed, to continue on that path is a standing insult to the good sense of all those who voted for me. Instead, I shall represent the interests of Cornwall and its people fearlessly, telling truth to English power from the privilege of the Commons opposition benches.’

Duke - redemption

DUKE BINS BUILDING PLANS

The Duke of Cornwall has ordered his minions to cease their building projects across Cornwall. Forthwith. ‘Covering the land with concrete, tarmac and twee retro-housing projects while calling them eco-communities is entirely at odds with my stated policy of embracing the environment and small furry creatures. I’m afraid my people got rather out of hand and over-enthusiastic about adding to my income, which at £18 million a year is ample for one who wishes to tread lightly on this earth’

The Duchy has pulled out of plans to build a supermarket and add to traffic congestion by placing a park and ride on fields at the eastern end of Truro. It will also be consulting with local residents at Newquay about new plans to turn its land there into a wildlife reserve to be granted in perpetuity to the people of the town.

Eustice - europhile

EUSTICE IN PLEA TO LEARN FROM EUROPE

After a short holiday in Europe Conservative and Ukip MP for Camborne-Redruth George Eustice stunned Westminster yesterday. ‘My fact-finding tour to the eurozone convinces me that we have much to learn from our European friends. I never realised so many of them could speak English and be so chummy. Take the growing problem of discarded plastic supermarket bags in Cornwall for instance. The regional government in Brittany years ago abolished these in negotiation with supermarket chains. Amazingly, Breton shoppers seem to have no problem doing their shopping. And while I’m on the subject of regional government, wouldn’t it be nice to have more elections in Cornwall to bring us in line with our fellow democrats across the water.’

Lavery - lucid

LAVERY DEMANDS RATIONAL LOCAL GOVERNMMENT

Cornwall Council supremo Kevin Lavery surprised seasoned observers of County Hall this week when he called for a fundamental shake-up of Cornwall Council. In a press statement he said ‘The Government’s Localism Act allows councils to opt for a committee form of government rather than the over-centralised and authoritarian style we currently have in Cornwall. Cornwall can show a lead by being at the forefront of efforts to re-democratise our local government. Elected members should provide vision and leadership rather than rely on over-paid bureaucrats such as myself. As an example I have voluntarily offered to work on half-pay and forgo £100,000 of my current salary until my redundancy package is agreed.’

Kaczmarek - konverted

COUNCIL FIGHTS FOR SUSTAINABLE POPULATION

In a shock announcement Cornwall Council has decided after consultation on its Core Strategy to seek the building of 13,000 houses in Cornwall over the next 20 years. Housing portfolio holder Cllr Kaczmarek, said ‘We have been convinced that the current growth rate of 48,000 houses or even more will result in an entirely unacceptable population by 2100 of well over a million. Cornwall will be bursting at the seams. This is clearly bonkers. We have to find an alternative to our tired and failed old policy of “accommodating in-migration”. We have decided to adopt a policy of‘democratic development’ to meet local needs and ensure a steady-statepopulation. May I personally apologise, having last year been duped by intense lobbying from housing developers and the advice of my own planners, who were unfortunately captured by that same lobby.’

The Council has begun work on developing a set of policies that work towards a stable and sustainable population.